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Borussia Dortmund are now considered a near certainty to advance to the last 16 of the UEFA Champions League (UCL) for a third successive season following a 3-0 demolition of Sporting CP in Portugal last week. Rated a whopping 97.1% chance by Opta to progress, Dortmund would need to suffer their first 3+ goal loss at home since early November 2023 to miss out.
Not only is the gulf of the margin encouraging for the Black and Yellows, but Dortmund went through to the next round on all 11 previous occasions in which they won the first leg of a major European knockout tie away from home. It would usually be of significant concern that Dortmund won only one of their last seven matches at home (D3, L3), but with the three losses coming by a single-goal margin, it’s a pattern they can afford to continue here.
Sporting’s starting XI in the competition so far is notable for the youngest average age (24yr 3d) of the 24 clubs still remaining in the UCL at the start of this matchday, so perhaps they can be forgiven for what is set to be another season in which they fall short of the last 16. They fielded arguably their strongest possible side at the weekend (D 2-2) in an attempt to strengthen their grip on Liga Portugal’s top spot, and are therefore likely to consider this tie a second priority given the outcome of the first leg.
New boss Rui Borges reaffirmed that when insisting his side need to prioritise “the final stretch” of their league season. It’s perhaps just as well that they can consider this tie already out of reach, because their progression now depends on improving an awful record of 12 losses from 14 UEFA away games against German opposition (W1, D1).
Players to watch: Karim Adeyemi not only has four goals from his last three UCL starts for Dortmund, but also five strikes in his last seven starts in this competition at Signal Iduna Park. Sporting teenager Conrad Harder is lighting up multiple competitions lately, directly contributing to five goals (G3, A2) in his last five appearances.
Hot stat: Dortmund have averaged more than two goals per game (2.2) across their last 15 UCL home games (W10, D4, L1).
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