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The first all-French UEFA Champions League (UCL) tie in 15 years went largely to script as Ligue 1 giants PSG asserted their authority over UCL debutants Brest to take a 3-0 lead into the second leg. With that margin in mind, it’s no surprise that Opta claim PSG have a 99% chance of advancing to the next round, particularly as they did so on 17 of the 18 previous occasions in which they won the first leg of a European knockout tie away.
It was already the third time this season they’ve beaten Brest, scoring 3+ goals on each occasion. PSG are now unbeaten in 31 H2Hs (W23, D8), their longest unbeaten run against any opponent in their history, and look set to extend that unless they suffer their first loss of the season at home to a French club (W10, D2).
After a positive start, Brest appear to have been found out in the UCL, conceding eight unanswered goals in their last three such matches. Head coach Éric Roy thought the 3-0 first-leg result was “harsh” but has nonetheless conceded their task from here is close to impossible as they would need to become the first side in UCL history to progress from a two-legged knockout tie after losing the first leg at home by 3+ goals!
The Pirates are fighting to obtain qualification for European football next season and have enjoyed an uptick in Ligue 1 form recently, but their only loss from their last six league matches (W4, D1) - 5-2 at home to PSG - certainly doesn’t bode well for this particular game. Grinding out a win, even by a small margin, would be a great shot in the arm for their confidence, but Brest have not beaten PSG away in any competition since September 1981 (D5, L13).
Players to watch: Midfielder Fabián Ruiz was PSG’s only goalscorer at the weekend - one of his three goals this season came against Brest, while the Parisians are on a nine-game winning streak when he scores. Ludovic Ajorque also struck at the weekend and will be hoping to break a 13-game pattern in which he alternates between scoring and not scoring!
Hot streak: Brest’s last seven losses in any competition came by a 2+ goal margin.
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